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Whales Ratio - Daily View
Chart Analysis

Whales ratio (1) also showing a stable relatively high level indicating a constant sell pressure. Enough to distribute while the price can lift up.

Whales Ratio 30d Average (2) is reaching the top again. Last time that happens was 5JAN22, 13Jan22 and 4SEP16 (!!). While stablecoin reserves on exchanges has rised a bit as mentioned above. Stablecoin supply maintains its level now.

Total exchange Netflows (3) showing also for yesterday more outflows than inflows.

Conclusion: Whales ratio 30d rising and reaching the top again. That’s not good at all. As soon as it starts to decline the price should dump again. The whales ratio 30d average shows dump preparations. So, always with delay.

Market Flow Analysis
Chart Analysis:

BTC (1) inflows to all exchanges (spot and derivative combined) rising since 7MAR22.

Stablecoin inflows (2) compared to yesterday almost the same volume, like also outflows (3). The stablecoin volume inflow and outflow has lifted up a lot. Yesterdays stablecoin volume reached the levels of 4DEC21 and 21JUN21 and 25JUN21!

Conclusion: A rising volume in flows always have an impact to the price. Stablecoin inflows and outflows almost neutral.

Miners Flow Analysis
Chart Analysis:

Miners outflows reserves are declining, but not indicating any sell-off. Hourly view showing that miners are selling the recent inflows. We need to see how they react with rising energy prices.

Conclusion: Miners reserves are declining, but still maintains its level above of 1.86 million BTC.

Future Trading Analysis
Data Analysis:

Funding rate is dumping hard since yesterday indicating more demans for shorts than for longs in the last 8 hours. While open interest has dumped too yesterday in our long squeeze it is stable now and leverage ratio maintains a high level.

We are detecting big BTC flows related to derivative exchanges. We have received almost 4,900 BTC but at the same time 5,300 BTC leaved. In the last 2 hours we have received more inflows than outflows. Almost 3,000 BTC and $225 million in stablecoins flowed in.

We have some liquidation clusters for longs at 38.6k and for shorts at 42.1k (bigger volume btw)!

Conclusion: Future traders expecting more dump soon. It’s difficult to detect if those stablecoins and BTC will be used to short or long. However, based on the liquidation map it would make more sende to pump and liquidate the shorts as they show a bigger volume and can bring us to 45k very quick.

Exchange Order Walls

Bitfinex limiting the way up at 46.6k (low volume) and limiting the way down at 34.4k (low volume cluster).

Conclusion: 35k looks interesting as possible next local bottom. A possible local top could be between 42k - 46k (wide range)

Conclusion and personal trade strategy
Whales ratio indicating distribution, flows rising related to derivative exchanges, future traders expecting a bearish price action, liquidation map showing a bigger volume for short squeeze, option traders expecting a rising volatility and placing bets for both possible scenarios, exchange walls the same like the last days, except FTX. FTX limiting the way up close to our current price. As mentioned on twitter already, no solid trend detected today.

My momentum indicator VMC Cipher_B_Divergences (btw for free on tradingview) is indicating a pump soon, a huge one. But as mentioned today its not 100% right always, maybe 80%. I use the indicator sometimes as last confirmation for a trend. My trading strategy due the fact I can’t detect a solid trend is to buy spot and use SL. Future trading would only make sense with low leverage and tiny SL in my opinion. If they want to liquidate the big short cluster at 42.1k they need to pump quick.

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